A critical issue in many marketing research studies is the creation of experimental clusters for the purpose of testing new products, advertising campaigns and other marketing decisions prior to widespread introduction in the marketplace. These experimental clusters are often called "test...

This paper evaluates some learning models and explores the possibility of extending the linear learning models by adding explanatory variables, using Lilien's model as a point of departure. Two parameter estimation schemes are proposed and applied: one at the micro-level using consumer panel...

The commonly used market share models are all based on the implicit assumption of a homogeneous population. However, studies of individual brand choice behavior tend to reject this basic premise. In this paper we attempt to explain why market share models perform well in spite of this underlying...

This paper describes a methodology based on decision analysis for addressing major program decisions in the development of magnetic fusion energy. The development of this complex technology involves a sequence of funding choices over time among multiple technical approaches and under...

This paper presents a decision model for a serious medical problem: the diagnosis and treatment of undifferentiated liver disease with jaundice. The model formalizes the use of information before a treatment is chosen, taking account of prior information collected by the doctor from laboratory...

An approach is proposed that is useful for long term forecasting of market penetration of new technologies, fuel price and availability, business performance, etc. The central idea is to systematically solicit experts' opinion in the form of subjective probability distributions in making future...

An applied procedure is preserved in this paper which has been used to forecast some of the political risks ars oil company faces from investment in an overseas developing country, e.g., expropriation, taxation, price and production controls. The procedure makes use of a panel of experts, but...

This paper describes a multiobjective decision analysis performed to assist in selecting the conductor, tower size, and number of subconductors per bundle for a proposed 765 kV transmission line. Multiobjective decision analysis is shown to provide a systematic, logical framework for handling...

Buy-Sell "Shotgun" clauses call for a partner who wishes to discontinue a partnership to declare a value for the business, and for the other partner to then buy her out or sell to her at this value. The resulting decision model for an expected utility maximizing individual, who is uncertain of...

This paper proposes and illustrates by example a decision model for a resource allocation problem in urban management--the design of service areas for police mobile units. Estimates of the performance of alternative designs are given by existing analytic models of spatially distributed emergency...