The idea of combining discrete-event simulation and system dynamics has been a topic of debate in the operations research community for over a decade. Many authors have considered the potential benefits of such an approach from a methodological or practical standpoint. However, despite numerous...

For a simplified structural equation/IV regression model with one right-side endogenous variable, we obtain the exact conditional distribution function for Moreira's (2003) conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test. This is then used to obtain the critical value function needed to implement the...

Complex designs are often used to select the sample which is followed over time in a panel survey. We consider some parametric models for panel data and discuss methods of estimating the model parameters which allow for complex schemes. We incorporate survey weights into alternative point...

Bayesian models for computer-aided underwriting have been developed for a major composite insurance company for two classes of commercial business: motor fleet and fire. The fire model produces a posterior probability distribution over a discretized dimension of risk, defined as the probability...

Presents a latent trait and a latent class model for analyzing the relationships among a set of mixed manifest variables using 1 or more latent variables. The set of manifest variables contains metric (continuous or discrete) and binary items. For the latent trait model the latent variables are...

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is...

To complement the evidence-based practice paradigm, the authors argued for a core outcome measure to provide practice-based evidence for the psychological therapies. Utility requires instruments that are acceptable scientifically, as well as to service users, and a coordinated implementation of...

This article investigates the latest developments in longevity-risk modelling, and explores the key risk management challenges for both the financial and insurance industries. The article discusses key definitions that are crucial for the enhancement of the way longevity risk is understood,...

Small area estimation techniques typically rely on regression models that use both covariates and random effects to explain variation between the areas. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do...

Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration...