, business confidence, domestic and international institutions. Forecasts will be evaluated for accuracy, bias and efficiency …

unbiased. The newly-introduced panel data approach also confirms the absence of bias in current-year GDP forecasts across EU …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … errors in the exogenous assumptions on interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices. The state-dependent bias may be …

; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, using private sector forecasts as an …

institutions and the propaganda bias explains up to 50 percent of their forecast error. …

institutions and the propaganda bias explains up to 50 percent of their forecast error. …