In this paper, we consider semiparametric model averaging of the nonlinear dynamic time series system where the number of exogenous regressors is ultra large and the number of autoregressors is moderately large. In order to accurately forecast the response variable, we propose two semiparametric...

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...