In this paper, we embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. We show that the combination of log-normally distributed idiosyncratic productivity...

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and...

Shifts in the long-run rate of productivity growth are difficult, in real time, to distinguish from transitory fluctuations. We analyze the evolution of forecasts of long-run productivity growth during the 1970s and 1990s and examine in a dynamic general equilibrium model the consequences of...

We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain. Using a forward-looking quarterly model of the U.S. economy, estimated over the 1969-2002 period,...

This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky wages and sticky prices using impulse responses to technology and monetary policy shocks. We utilize...

Presentation to the Conference on Asian Banking and Finance at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, June 11, 2012

Presentation to the California Bankers Association, 121st Annual Convention, Dana Point, CA, May 4, 2012

Presentation to Seattle-Area community leaders, Bellevue, WA, June 6, 2012

Presentation at the Central Bank of Chile, Fourth Summit Meeting of Central Banks on Inflation Targeting, Santiago, Chile, November 18, 2011

Presentation to Portland community leaders, Portland, OR. July 12, 2012