To investigate yield curve dynamics, researchers have employed a wide variety of models, including the famous Nelson-Siegel level, slope, and curvature factors, and principal components analysis, among others. In this paper, we decompose the term structure of HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

The correct modeling of the interest rates term structure should definitely be considered an aspect of primary importance since the forward rates and the discount factors used in any financial and risk analysis are calculated from such structure. The turbulence of the markets in recent years,...

This study develops a model to predict and explain short-term fluctuations in the Brazilian local currency interest rate term structure. The model relies on the potential relationship between these movements and key macroeconomic factors. The methodology consists of two stages. First, the...

In this paper, we analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate...

We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed-income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the...

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting precision of survey expectations of the four financial variables in the Prospera survey commissioned by Sveriges Riksbank – one of Sweden's most important economic surveys. Our analysis shows that the market participants in the survey are able to...

We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed-income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the...

In this paper, we analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate...

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian time series model that combines the nonparametric features of an infinite hidden Markov model with the volatility persistence captured by the GARCH framework, to effectively model and forecast short-term interest rates. When applied to US 3-month Treasury...