Purpose – Short option positions carry significant risk of losses well in excess of 100 per cent of the initial option price. Margin requirements associated with such positions are therefore considerable. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology for calculating margin...

Purpose – Short option positions carry significant risk of losses well in excess of 100 per cent of the initial option price. Margin requirements associated with such positions are therefore considerable. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology for calculating margin...

Based on the publicly available information on the data sources and methodology used by the Census Bureau to estimate e-commerce and physical retail sales, and based on detailed e-mail communications with the Census official responsible for the retail trade data, we found, in a version of this...

This is the first study on the risk-neutral distribution of option returns. We derive solutions for the risk-neutral variance, skewness, and kurtosis of call and put option returns and document several properties of these ex-ante moments. We find that the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis of...

Motivated by the nature of asset pricing models, we investigate the cross-sectional relation between the market's ex-ante view of a stock's risk and the stock's ex-ante expected return. We demonstrate that an ex-ante measure of expected returns based on analyst price targets is highly related to...

We develop an ex-ante measure of expected stock returns based on analyst price targets. We then show that ex-ante measures of volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied from stock option prices are positively related to the cross section of ex-ante expected stock returns. While expected returns...

We test the efficient market hypothesis by using machine learning to forecast future stock returns from historical performance. These forecasts strongly predict the cross section of future stock returns. The predictive power holds in most subperiods, is strong among the largest 500 stocks, and...