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Varma, Gautam Kumar - In: The journal of prediction markets 7 (2013) 3, pp. 45-60

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342033

A STATISTICAL MODEL OF CLAIM PRICES IN PREDICTION MARKETS

Ray, Russ - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 4 (2010) 3, pp. 85-93

This paper finds that claim prices in prediction markets, a new genre of financial markets, follow a Poisson distribution. The significance of this finding is that as soon as a claim in a prediction market is created and thereafter flushes out expert and inside information from around the world...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850160

Performance and risk taking under threat of elimination

Adams, Nathan R.; Waddell, Glen R. - 2017

We revisit the incentive effects of elimination tournaments with a fresh approach to identification, the results of which strongly support that performance improves under the threat of elimination and does so, but only in part, due to increases in risk taking. Where we can separately identify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011731884

The effects of the clock and kickoff rule changes on actual and market-based expected scoring in NCAA football

Linna, Kenneth; Moore, Evan; Paul, Rodney; Weinbach, Andrew - In: International Journal of Financial Studies 2 (2014) 2, pp. 179-192

Clock rule changes were introduced in the 2006 season with the goal of reducing the average duration of the game; these changes were reversed in 2007. In addition, in 2007 the kickoff rule was changed to create more excitement and potentially more scoring. We examine what happened to actual and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010421237

ANALYSIS OF THE DISPOSITION EFFECT: ASYMMETRY AND PREDICTION ACCURACY

Teschner, Florian - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 7 (2013) 1, pp. 27-42

The disposition effect describes investors’ common tendency of selling a winning investment too soon and holding on to losing investments too long. We analyze the disposition effect in a prediction market for economic indices. We show that the effect for individual traders as well as on an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798241

MULTIVARIATE METHODS IN ASSESSING THE ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MARKETS EX ANTE BASED ON OHE HIGHEST-PRICE CRITERION

Lin, Hung-Wen; Tung, Chen-yuan; Yeh, Jason - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 7 (2013) 3, pp. 29-44

. However, we need to greatly improve the low confidence of 19.58% for the PCA-DA model to predict the result of any contract …This study successfully establishes the principal component analysis with discriminant analysis (PCA-DA) model to … xFuture data (7,274 contracts of future events) from 2006-2011, the PCA-DA model shows learning effects and provides 97 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798249

COMPARING THE FORECASTING ACCURACY OF PREDICTION MARKETS AND POLLS FOR TAIWAN’S PRESIDENTIAL AND MAYORAL ELECTIONS

Tung, Chen-yuan; Chou, Tzu-Chuan; Lin, Jih-wen; Lin, Hsin-yi - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 3, pp. 1-26

This paper devises a methodology to compare the accuracy of prediction markets and polls. The data of the Exchange of Future Events (xFuture) for Taiwan’s 2006 mayoral elections and 2008 presidential election show that the prediction markets outperform the opinion polls in various indices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798258

FORECASTING ACCURACY: COMPARING PREDICTION MARKETS AND SURVEYS – AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

Reig, Robert; Schoder, Ramona - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 4 (2010) 3, pp. 1-19

survey for the same forecasting item. The results showed roughly the same accuracy for all employed methods with the survey …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850156

LIQUIDITY PROVISION AND CROSS ARBITRAGE IN CONTINUOUS DOUBLE-AUCTION PREDICTION MARKETS

Antweiler, Werner - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 7 (2013) 3, pp. 61-86

introducing an automated market maker that engages in zero-profit cross-arbitrage in multi-contract markets. Empirical analysis of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850161

The Tradesports NFL Prediction Market: An Analysis of Market Efficiency, Transaction Costs, and Bettor Preferences

O'Connor, Philip; Zhou, Feng - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 2 (2008) 1, pp. 45-71

spread contract followed by the straight-up contract. Trading volume during the game (in-running) was about twice the trading …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005256306