Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

I describe algorithms for drawing from distributions using adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, introduce a Mata function for performing adaptive MCMC, amcmc(), and a suite of functions amcmc *() allowing an alternative implementation of adaptive MCMC. amcmc() and amcmc *() may be...

Derivation of the the conversion factor ßM, from bits of entropy to dollars of waste

Effective Mass Me of WIP derived from Little’s Law

Derivation of the the conversion factor BM, from bits of entropy to dollars of waste

Derivation of Minimum Batch size to minimize WIP and Cycle Time R

The Ohno Criterion states that WIP with faster velocities have lower cost than WIP with average slower velocities, in manufacturing cycles per unit time: v=G/W where W= number of pieces of Work In Process Inventory (WIP), and G = rate at which pieces exit from WIP to finished goods per unit...

The elicitation of power prior distributions is based on the availability of historical data, and is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power. However, an arbitrary positive constant before the like- lihood function of the historical data could...