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This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
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may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations … feedback (strategic complementarity) - where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust) - coordination … by coordination on trend-following behavior leading to (almost-)self-fulfilling equilibria. Heterogeneous expectations …
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naïve learning rules. In fact, more sophisticated, e.g. recursive least squares (RLS) expectations produce less accurate …We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent …, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less …
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