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We study the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a … emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze commonalities in inflation synchronization across a wide range of … inflation measures. We report three major results. First, inflation movements have become increasingly synchronized …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980916
Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor … explains approximately 58% of the variation in headline inflation across all countries and over 72% in OECD economies. The … explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Core inflation is also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551069
-based disinflation around the world over the past half-century, with global consumer price inflation down from a peak of roughly 17 …This paper introduces a global database that contains inflation series: (i) for a wide range of inflation measures … (headline, food, energy, and core consumer price inflation; producer price inflation; and gross domestic product deflator …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584053
This paper shows that inflation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, the inflation rates … variance share that is associated with Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to …. The co-movement of inflation comes largely from common shocks. Global Inflation is a function of real developments at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318220
Inflation co-moves across countries and several papers have shown that lags of this common inflation can help to … forecast country inflation. This paper constructs forecasts of common (or 'global') inflation using survey forecasts of country … inflation. These forecasts of global inflation have predictive power for global inflation at a medium horizon (12 months) but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982775
markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383374
This paper shows that in ation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, the inflation rates … variance share that is associated with Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to … comovement of inflation comes largely from common shocks. Global Inflation is a function of real developments at short horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003774087
investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also examine whether … there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due to globalization-driven changes in the national economic structure. A …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155344
Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper …, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the … inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that the conventional trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619539
The paper addresses the issue of the co-movements of national inflation dynamics with a common factor of a global … dynamic. Based on the previous work of Ciccarelli and Mojon (2005) on global inflation the authors look at the more recent … global financial system by central banks around the world together with the massive fiscal deficit spending of governments to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014207877