We use machine learning to construct a statistically optimal and unbiased benchmark for firms' earnings expectations. We show that analyst expectations are on average biased upwards, and that this bias exhibits substantial time-series and cross-sectional variation. On average, the bias increases...

We use machine learning to construct a statistically optimal and unbiased benchmark for firms' earnings expectations. We show that analyst expectations are on average biased upwards, and that this bias exhibits substantial time-series and cross-sectional variation. On average, the bias increases...

A large percentage of text in short-sell research reports pertains to accounting fraud and earnings mismanagement. Using survey cash-flow forecasts as a counterfactual, we find that investors underreact to the cash-flow news contained in short-sell reports. On average, target firms earn abnormal...