This paper examines the regime changes in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), by applying the duration model approach to quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete European Monetary System (EMS) history. We first make use of the nonparametric...

This paper is devoted to the past, present, and future of the European Monetary System (EMS). After examining its background, the paper reviews the structure and operation of the EMS, as well as the theoretical framework used to explain exchange-rate movements inside official fluctuation bands....