This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is …, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. In this framework, we extend the …

data. Thus, accounting for imperfect credibility is important to model the formation of expectations in the economy and to … bank credibility. Forward guidance and the credibility of the central bank are uniquely modeled by utilizing a game …-theoretic evolutionary framework. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on …