We consider Bayesian sample size determination using a criterion that utilizes the first two moments of the posterior variance. We study the resulting sample size in dependence on the chosen prior and explore the success rate for bounding the posterior variance below a prescribed limit under the...

We investigate the potential occurrence of change points—commonly referred to as “momentum shifts”—in the dynamics of football matches. For that purpose, we model minute-by-minute in-game statistics of Bundesliga matches using hidden Markov models (HMMs). To allow for within-state...