This document gives an introduction to the R-Package 'surveillance' containing tools for outbreak detection in routinely collected surveillance data. The package contains an implementation of the procedures described by Stroup et al. (1989), Farrington et al. (1996) and the system used at the...

This paper presents a Poisson control chart for monitoring time series of counts typically arising in the surveillance of infectious diseases. The in-control mean is assumed to be time-varying and linear on the log-scale with intercept and seasonal components. If a shift in the intercept occurs...

The key operation in Bayesian inference is to compute high-dimensional integrals. An old approximate technique is the Laplace method or approximation, which dates back to Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774). This simple idea approximates the integrand with a second-order Taylor expansion around the mode...

type="main" xml:id="rssc12069-abs-0001" <title type="main">Summary</title> <p>To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge can be incorporated in the prior distributions. Recently, integrated nested Laplace approximations have been...</p>

We consider the following problem: estimate the size of a population marked with serial numbers after only a sample of the serial numbers has been observed. Its simplicity in formulation and the inviting possibilities of application make this estimation well suited for an undergraduate level...

LImited Memory Influence Diagrams (LIMIDs) are general models of decision problems for representing limited memory policies (Lauritzen and Nilsson (2001)). The evaluation of LIMIDs can be done by Single Policy Updating that produces a local maximum strategy in which no single policy modification...