Over the last 50 years there has been a regular cycle of Government committees which have forecast “shortages” and “surpluses” in medical manpower. It is remarkable how little change there has been in the methods used in these forecasts. This has occurred despite regular critiques of the...

The cost of training doctors, both in terms of expenditure on medical education and in terms of the induced demand for NHS expenditure created by having more doctors initiating care and cure, are considerable. However, the forecasting of their number and the planning of their utilisation remain...