We propose a general method for predicting multiple steps ahead of our target system and estimating simultaneously the prediction errors in a real time. The requirement of the proposed method is that we have a time series of the target system. We demonstrate the method by artificial data, real...

Although an economy is influenced by a natural disaster, the market response to the disaster during the first 24 hours is not clearly understood. Here we show that an earthquake quickly causes temporal changes in a foreign exchange market by examining the case of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake....

We show using nonlinear time series analysis that the timing of trades in foreign exchange markets has significant information. We apply a set of methods for analyzing point process data developed in neuroscience and nonlinear science. Our results imply that foreign exchange markets might be...

It is generally considered that the US dollar and the euro are the key currencies in the world and in Europe, respectively. However, there is no absolute general measure for a key currency. Here, we investigate the 24-hour periodicity of foreign exchange markets using a recurrence plot, and...

We introduce a weighted-moving-average analysis for the tick-by-tick data of yen–dollar exchange rates. The weights are determined automatically for given data by applying the Yule–Walker formula for autoregressive model. Although the data are non-stationary, the resulting moving average...

We investigate bootstrapping and Bayesian methods for prediction. The observations and the variable being predicted are distributed according to different distributions. Many important problems can be formulated in this setting. This type of prediction problem appears when we deal with a Poisson...