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We study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life cycle model with growth, costly financial intermediation, and taxes on nominal quantities. We find a stationary equilibrium of the model matches a wide variety of facts about the postwar U.S. economy. We then calculate that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490871
We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005490964
This paper presents a model of economic growth based on the life-cycle hypothesis to determine the path of international capital flows as the baby boom passes through the U.S. economy. The model predicts that a baby boom causes a temporary increase in capital flow into the U.S. but the increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005352993
The U.S. economy appears to have experienced a pronounced shift toward higher productivity over the last five years or so. We wish to understand the implications of such shifts for the structure of optimal monetary policy rules in simple dynamic economies. Accordingly, we begin with a standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005360622
Address before AAIM Management Association, St. Louis, Mo., Feb. 20, 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420423
Presentation to the AAIM Management Association, St. Louis, Mo. May 11, 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420440
Presentation to the Little Rock Downtown Rotary Club, Little Rock - Nov. 20, 2001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005420472
Presentation to the Noonday Club Meeting, St. Louis - Dec. 2, 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005726538
Studies of the predictive ability of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, an anecdotal measure of regional economic conditions, for aggregate output and employment have proven inconclusive. This might be attributed, in part, to the irregular release schedule of the Beige Book. In this paper, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707637
The rapid increase in U.S. economic growth during the late 1990s inspired speculation that an acceleration in the rate of technological progress had given rise to an increase in potential output growth. This paper considers the transition dynamics associated with such a change using a general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707648