This paper discusses a large-scale factor model for the German economy. Following the recent literature, a data set of 121 time series is used via principal component analysis to determine the factors, which enter a dynamic model for German GDP. The model is compared with alternative univariate...

This paper estimates and forecasts trend output and output gaps for the Euro area. In the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB), trend output is used to forecast a reference value for money. For this purpose, trend output must be forecasted as well. In this paper, a...