Two different probability measures are of importance when calculating the risk of a large portfolio: the risk-neutral measure for pricing, and the real measure to project true earnings. When using Monte Carlo, the natural method is to conduct two different simulations, one in each probability...

In this paper we develop a structural model of counterparty risk . In particular we provide closed form formulae for the price of risky debt and equity, which depend up on the lending/borrowing relationships in the economy. Our model applies to completely general lender/borrower relationships,...

This short paper establishes two conditions that allow to verify easily the strongquasi convexity of the objective function in a non linear least -squares problem, thereby the unicity of the minimum over a convex set.

Markowitz and Sharpe won the Nobel Prize in Economics more than a decade ago for the development of Mean-Variance analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the year 2002, Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics for the development of Prospect Theory. Can these two apparently...

This paper investigates the price and volume behavior around buy, sell and holdrecommendations of Swiss stocks, as published in the major financial newspaper in Switzerland. This represents a random selection of recommendations which have been previously released by banks to their customers....

This paper presents a utility-based approach to value the borrower optimal behavior in presence of credit risk. The paper solves for the dynamic portfolio choices of a borrower. We thereby show that the presence of debt leads to a substantial modification in the borrower's behavior across states...

This paper introduces a framework for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instability in small open economies. Our basic model is a dynamic open economy model with a tradeable good produced with capital and a country-specific factor. We also assume that firms face credit...

Based on an experimental analysis of a simple monetary economy we argue that a monetary system is more stable than one would expect from individual rationality. Weshow that positive reciprocity stabilizes the monetary system, provided everyparticipant considers accepting money as a reasonable...

This paper contributes to the micro-foundation of money in centralizedmarkets with idiosyncratic uncertainty. It shows existence of stationarymonetary equilibria and ensures that there is an optimum quantity ofmoney. The rational solution of our model is compared with actual be-havior in a...

For decades economists have considered money illusion aslargely irrelevant. Here we show, however, that money illusion haspowerful effects on equilibrium selection. If we represent payoffs innominal terms almost all subjects play at or close to an inefficientequilibrium whereas if we lift the...