Starting from the asset pricing approach of Engel and West, we examine the degree to which fundamentals can explain exchange rate fluctuations. We show that it is not possible to obtain sharp inferences about the relative contribution of fundamentals using only data on observed monetary...

In this paper, we show that the data have difficulty distinguishing a stock price decomposition in which expectations of future real dividend growth is a primary determinant of stock price movements from one in which expectations of future excess returns are a primary determinant. The data...

Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log...

Using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we decompose the log price-dividend ratio into a market fundamentals component and a bubble component. The market fundamentals component depends on expectations of future dividend growth and required returns, while the bubble component is assumed...

Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log...

This paper examines the dynamics of deviations from covered interest parity using daily data on the UK/US spot, forward exchange rates and interest rates over the period January 1974 to September 1993. Like other studies we find a substantial number of instances during the sample in which the...

Some observers have argued that the run-up in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock price index during the 1990s was due to irrational exuberance rather than market fundamentals. This article presents evidence that the case for market fundamentals is stronger than it appears on the surface. Nathan...