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We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306616
We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009270413
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227839
Recent findings indicate that macroeconomic survey forecasts are anchoring biased and therefore are inefficient. However, despite highly significant test coefficients, a bias adjustment does not improve forecasts' quality. We find that the cognitive bias is a statistical artifact because the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010711350
We analyze the quality of macroeconomic survey forecasts. Recent findings indicate that they are anchoring biased. This irrationality would challenge the results of a wide range of empirical studies, e.g., in asset pricing, volatility clustering or market liquidity, which rely on survey data to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009323194
We study the eect of the business cycle on optimal capital structure choice and thebenet to leverage. We propose a regime switching model with a state-dependentcash ow process to capture macroeconomic risk in a rm's cash ow. Our modelis parsimonious but still realistic and allows for a wide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009284859
Standard equity valuation approaches (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF model) are derived under theassumption of ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and clean surplus accounting. Becausethese conditions are hardly ever met, we extend the standard approaches, based on thefundamental principle of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009284863
We study the impact of the arrival of macroeconomic news on the informational andnoise-driven components in high-frequency quote processes and their conditional variances.Bid and ask returns are decomposed into a common ("ecient return") factorand two market-side-specic components capturing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009284868
Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue moreprofitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit fromthis contemporaneous link by differentiating between “able” and “lucky”analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009302619
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010209941