Judgmental adjustments to statistically generated forecasts have become a standard practice in demand forecasting, especially at a stock keeping units level. However, due to the subjective nature of judgmental interventions this approach cannot guarantee optimal use of available information and...

Forecasts of demand are crucial to drive supply chains and enterprise resource planning systems. Usually, well-known univariate methods that work automatically such as exponential smoothing are employed to accomplish such forecasts. The traditional Supply Chain relies on a decentralised system...

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of...

An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to operationalise the tests. Sometimes the characterization of the series is an end in itself. More often, unit...

An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to operationalise the tests. Sometimes the characterization of the series is an end in itself. More often, unit...

Forecasting researchers, with few exceptions, have ignored the major forecasting controversy facing the world in the early 21st Century: namely, whether and by how much the earth is warming; and the role of climate modelling in reaching any conclusions on this challenging topic. In contrast,...

This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on the expected time between orders. A...

Successful ICT policy analyses and implementation rely on a sufficient knowledge of how and why consumers adopt new technologies. For instance, analysts of the digital divide may need to quantify the factors that are perceived to drive this ICT usage gap. This paper focuses on understanding the...

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that emerge from consumer surveys. This is despite other modelling strategies which suggest that such dynamics may be very important to the process of diffusion. We present a segmental Gompertz...

There has been strong empirical evidence that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain (from the retailer to the raw materials supplier), a phenomenon called bullwhip effect. This paper examines the bullwhip effect and in particular one of its main causes, demand...