No-arbitrage macro-finance models use variance decompositions to gauge the extent of association between the macro variables and yields. We show that results generated by this approach are sensitive to the order of variables in the recursive identification scheme. In a four-factor model, one may...

Unspanned stochastic volatility (USV) refers to the inability of bonds to replicate volatility-sensitive derivative securities. Affine term structure models require special restrictions on the parameters to exhibit USV. We use a joint Eurodollar futures and options data set to estimate affine...

No-arbitrage macro-finance models use variance decompositions to gauge the extent of association between the macro variables and yields. We show that results generated by this approach are sensitive to the order of variables in the recursive identification scheme. In a four-factor model, one may...

US monetary policy is investigated using a regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model that relies on inflation, output, and the short interest rate as factors. The model is complemented with a set of assumptions that allow the dynamics of the private sector to be separated from monetary...

We evaluate the statistical and economic differences between affine term-structure models. Despite the voluminous literature on this subject, we have a limited understanding of those structural features of the models that are important in practice. Given that the key distinguishing...

No-arbitrage macro-finance models use variance decompositions to gauge the extent of association between the macro variables and yields. We show that results generated by this approach are sensitive to the order of variables in the recursive identification scheme. In a four-factor model, one may...

We evaluate the statistical and economic differences between affine term-structure models. Despite the voluminous literature on this subject, we have a limited understanding of those structural features of the models that are important in practice. Given that the key distinguishing...

Counterfactual analysis uses the disentangled regimes in policy and shocks to understand their importance for the great moderation. The low-volatility regime of exogenous shocks during the last two decades plays an important role, while monetary policy contributes by trading off asymmetric...

This paper proposes to investigate whether US monetary policy changed over time by evaluating evidence from the entire yield curve. A regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model relies on inflation, output and the short interest rate as factors. In a departure from the finance literature,...