"Presents new methods in scenario thinking, based on a mix of high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The authors describe the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provide detailed 'road maps' on how to implement them - together with practical examples of their...

Before World War II, the Ford Motor Company was virtually alone in its hiring of black auto workers. If this was because other employers would not hire blacks, then the terms of employment at Ford might differ for blacks and whites. This paper uses Ford's own personnel data to test for racial...

This paper aims to extend recent work on the term structure of interest rates by establishing, in the context of the medium term UK interbank market, forecasting models which make use of market spreads as error correction terms. These models are then used within a trading scenario to test the...