In this paper, we illustrate the application of Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty. The focus is on a simple projection model with the historical data representing population change in England and Wales from 1841 to 2007. The Bayesian forecasts to...

The Bayesian approach has a number of attractive properties for probabilistic forecasting. In this paper, we apply Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty for England and Wales. To account for heterogeneity found in the historical data, we add...

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is...

The Bayesian approach has a number of attractive properties for forecasting uncertainty which have yet to be fully explored in the study of future population change. In this paper, we apply some simple Bayesian time series models to obtain future population estimates with uncertainty for England...

International migration data in Europe are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. As a result, reported data are inconsistent in availability, definition, and quality. In this article, we propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various...

International migration statistics vary considerably from one country to another in terms of measurement, quality and coverage. Furthermore, immigration tend to be captured more accurately than emigration. In this paper, we first describe the need to augment reported flows of international...

The aims of this paper are to present the background and specification of the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model. Currently, international migration data are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. This creates problems when attempting...

Measures of international migration flows are often limited in both availability and comparability. This paper aims to address these issues at a global level using an indirect method to estimate country to country migration flows from more readily available bilateral stock data. Estimates are...

Measures of international migration flows are often limited in both availability and comparability. This paper aims to address these issues at a global level using an indirect method to estimate country to country migration flows from more readily available bilateral stock data. Estimates are...

A methodology to estimate flow tables of migration transitions for the globe is illustrated in two parts. First, a methodology to derive flows from sequential stock tables is developed. Second, the methodology is applied to recently released World Bank migration stock tables between 1960 and...