The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap in order to cope with both model uncertainty and parameter instability that are inherent to trend-cycle decomposition models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of...

The paper focuses on the estimation of the euro area output gap. We construct model-averaged measures of the output gap in order to cope with both model uncertainty and parameter instability that are inherent to trend-cycle decomposition models of GDP. We first estimate nine models of...

Mohr investigates the impact of fiscal policy in Germany using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model including four series: GDP, private consumption, government receipts and government expenditures. The author identifies independent revenue and expenditure shocks using a set of...

Betriebliche Personalentwicklung, Didaktik, IT-Einführungs- und Projektmanagement beschäftigen sich seit langem mit der Frage, wie eine gute betriebliche Qualifizierungsstrategie für Anwender betriebswirtschaftlicher Unternehmenssoftware, z.B. ERP-Systeme, aussehen sollte. Matthias Mohr...

In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic effects of alternative fiscal consolidation policies in the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), a two-country open-economy model of the euro area developed at the European Central Bank (cf. Coenen et al., 2007). We model fiscal consolidation as a permanent...

This paper proposes a new univariate method to decompose a time series into a trend, a cyclical and a seasonal component: the Trend-Cycle filter (TC filter) and its extension, the Trend-Cycle-Season filter (TCS filter). They can be regarded as extensions of the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP...