Showing 1 - 10 of 18
The paper analyzes the role of a multilateral payments union (PU) between East European countries (EEPU) as an intermediate solution in the process to full convertibility. After a description of the main functions of a PU, which is based on the historical model of the European Payments Union, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005497971
The debate on EMU has been very influenced by the traditional theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs). The paper shows that this theory is not an ideal yardstick for an assessment of EMU. Its assumptions are not very realistic and its focus on asymmetric real shocks is much too narrow. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498125
The paper shows that the conversion from national currency bank notes to hard-ECU notes is promoted by the provision of an implicit and free currency call option. This wealth effect is caused by the devaluation-proof definition of this currency. Nevertheless, additional transactions and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504203
The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504428
The paper analyses the role of currency convertibility in the process of economic transition in Eastern Europe and discusses alternative institutional options for achieving this difficult task. It shows that an early transition to convertibility is an indispensable requirement for the success of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281277
The paper examines the integration strategy laid down in the Delors Committee Report. It focuses on two issues: Is a comprehensive conceptual framework for monetary coordination in Europe needed already in Stage One, and how could it be designed? What is the rationale for a training period for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005656167
The paper discusses the institutional arrangements of a multilateral payments union for the Commonwealth of Independent States. It starts with an analysis of the risks of a non-cooperative solution, which would lead to serious liquidity and solvency problems and thus curtail inter-republican...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661562
In this Paper we carry over a static version of a New Keynesian Macromodel a la Clarida Gali Gertler (1999) to a monetary union. We will show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661571
The paper discusses alternative options for a future monetary order in the area of the Soviet Union. Its main focus is on two questions: Under what conditions would a common rouble currency area be compatible with fiscal discipline and effective financial control over the large numbers of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661619
The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the €/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666725