Introduction: the Texas paradox -- And then there was light: from chaos to order in the kerosene era (1859-1911) -- No Rockefeller, no peace: boom-bust returns (1912-1933) -- Why are oil prices prone to boom bust cycles? -- The Texas era of price stability: US supply controls and international...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed...