We show that U.S. manufacturing wages during the Great Depression were importantly determined by forces on firms' intensive margins. Short-run changes in work intensity and the longer-term goal of restoring full potential productivity combined to influence real wage growth. By contrast, the...

We investigate the probability forecasting performance of a three-regime dynamic ordered probit model framework suitable to forecast recessions, low growth periods and accelerations for the U.S. and Japan. In a first step, we apply a non-parametric dating algorithm for the identification of...