Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Schwächetendenzen in Westeuropa haben inzwischen auch auf die Baukonjunktur übergegriffen. Nachdem sich der Zuwachs des Bauvolumens im Durchschnitt der EURO-CONSTRUCT-Länder bereits im letzten Jahr deutlich abgeschwächt hatte, wird für 1991/92 Stagnation erwartet....

This brief reviews the evolution of the US and the European labour markets since the beginning of the financial crisis. In the US, the unemployment rate and the share of long-term unemployment grew very fast, during the crisis, thereby reaching levels close to those in the EU. Does that mean...

"Education is the 'raw material' of the knowledge-based society which is at the centre of the new neo-classical growth theory, and most of all at the heart of the evolutionary growth theory, as the innovation capabilities of economies depend on human capital. According to the more recent...

This paper proposes a new methodology to evaluate the economic effect of statespecific policy changes, using bank-branching deregulations in the U.S. as an example. The new method compares economic performance of contiguous counties on opposite sides of state borders, where on one side...

We use Bayesian time-varying parameters VARs with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in the marginal predictive content of the yield spread for output growth in the United States and the United Kingdom, since the Gold Standard era, and in the Eurozone, Canada, and Australia over the...

This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.

We propose a benchmark prior for the estimation of vector autoregressions: a prior about initial growth rates of the modeled series. We first show that the Bayesian vs frequentist small sample bias controversy is driven by different default initial conditions. These initial conditions are...

A number of recent papers have found that certain measures of pollution worsen and later improve as income per head increases. It is widely believed that the downhill portion of this inverted-U curve reflects an induced policy response; that, as incomes rise, citizens demand improvements in...