Showing 1 - 10 of 248
"The Bank of England has constructed a 'suite of statistical forecasting models' (the 'Suite') providing judgement-free statistical forecasts of in ation and output growth as one of many inputs into the forecasting process, and to offer measures of relevant news in the data. The Suite combines a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003462816
"The decision to extract home equity is examined using household-level data for the United Kingdom, 1993 to 2003. At its peak during the period, around one in ten homeowners withdrew equity per year. The paper finds that the equity withdrawal decision conforms to predictions from the standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003462826
"Understanding interlinkages in a financial system is an integral part of the assessment of its stability. This paper employs an event study technique to assess the significance of interlinkages from the UK life insurance sector to the UK banking system in times of stress. The paper uses a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003462836
"This paper estimates yield curve models for the United Kingdom, where the underlying determinants have a macroeconomic interpretation. The first factor is an unobserved inflation target, the second factor is annual inflation, and the third factor is a 'Taylor rule residual', which, among other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003440341
Household debt and house prices in the United Kingdom rose substantially between 1987 and 2006. In this paper we use a calibrated overlapping generations model of the household sector to examine the extent to which changes in demographics, lower inflation, and a lower long-run real interest rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003940274
We build a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, featuring many types of nominal and real frictions that have become standard in the literature. In recent years it has become possible to estimate such models using Bayesian methods. These exercises typically involve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003940276
The aim of this paper is to explore the evolution of real exchange rate dynamics over time. We use a time-varying structural vector autoregression to investigate the role of demand, supply and nominal shocks and consider their impact on, and contribution to fluctuations in, the real exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003940278
Changes in monetary policy and shifts in dynamics of the macroeconomy are typically described using empirical models that only include a limited amount of information. Examples of such models include time-varying vector autoregressions that are estimated using output growth, inflation and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951113
This paper assesses how shocks to bank capital may influence a bank's portfolio behaviour using novel evidence from a UK bank panel data set from a period that pre-dates the recent financial crisis. Focusing on the behaviour of bank loans, we extract the dynamic response of a bank to innovations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951118
As part of its response to the global banking crisis and a sharp downturn in domestic economic prospects, the Bank of England' s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) began a programme of large-scale asset purchases (commonly referred to as quantitative easing or QE) in March 2009, with the aim of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983088