Showing 1 - 10 of 2,092
This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes's theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 to his policy prescriptions for the control of fluctuations in the early 1940s. The paper identifies six different "theories" of business fluctuations. With different theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487521
The use of large fiscal stimulus packages to dampen the impact of Covid-19 recently has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the discretionary fiscal policy. This paper aims at analysing the feasibility of automatic fiscal stabilisers to mitigate economic fluctuations in the case of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013174018
moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between … inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Median multipliers range …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013174156
moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between … inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Median multipliers range …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014364021
This paper reconsiders the role of macroeconomic shocks and policies in determining the Great Recession and the … subsequent recovery in the US. The Great Recession was mainly caused by a large demand shock and by the ZLB on the interest rate … increase in expenditure-to- GDP ratios was apparently determined by the adverse non-policy shocks that caused the recession. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434680
This paper studies the real effects of an exogenous UK tax change in recessions and expansions. The tax shock is identified via the measure proposed by Cloyne (2013). Combining local projection techniques (Jordà, 2005) with smooth transition regressions (Granger and Teräsvirta, 1994), tax...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012164687
prevent layoffs. Many OECD countries have used this policy in the Great Recession. This paper shows that the effects of short … in deep economic crises. The policy becomes more efficient as the recession deepens. In expansions, the effects are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011845664
Identifying fiscal multipliers is usually constrained by the absence of a counterfactual scenario. Our new data set allows overcoming this problem by making use of the fact that recommendations under the EU's excessive deficit procedure (EDP) provide both a baseline no-policy-change scenario and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856496
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782
In recent years, an increasing number of countries have began anchoring their fiscal policy frameworks in terms of rules that target the cyclically adjusted or structural (as opposed to actual) balance in an effort to overcome problems of procyclicality and fiscal volatility. The logic for doing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316667