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The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a consept is of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005649735
A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005627595
This paper presents a comprehensive model on the spread between the euro overnight rate and the key policy rate of the ECB. It is shown that the most important variables driving the level and the volatility of this spread are expectations about changes of the key policy rate and the projected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009639860
This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among interbank market interest rates and corporate loans interest rates in four countries from the euro area (Austria, Belgium, France and Italy), and in the Czech Republic. The paper also estimates a development of bank credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512867
We investigate the pass-through of monetary policy to bank lending rates in the euro area before and during the sovereign debt crisis. We make the following contributions. First, we use a factor-augmented vector autoregression, which allows us to assess the responses of a large number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301631
In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to inflation deviations from target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to inflation deviations from target. To (re-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449
The yield spread is a well documented leading indicator of GDP growth. Estrella (2005) proposes a model to explain this relationship. Within the model, the leading properties of the yield spread are determined by the monetary policy. Accordingly, changes of the leading properties that have been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296276
En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de “mediano plazo” como...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005603970
We estimate the reaction function of monetary policy in the Euro area and derive the Taylor-type policy rule that a would-be ECB would have followed since the beginning of the European Monetary System (1979-2003). We first follow the standard GMM methodology developed by Clarida, Galí and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056522
In this article we estimate a time-varying " natural " rate of interest (TVNRI) for a synthetic euro area over the period 1979Q1-2002Q4 using a small backward-looking macroeconomic model, broadly following a methodology developed by Laubach and Williams (2003) for the United States. The Kalman...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056544