Three methodologies to estimate the natural interest rate, NIR, are implemented for the Colombian economy. Two methods are statistical filters and the third involves some economic theory. The first method is based on unobserved components decomposition of the real interest rate and explores the...

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de mediano plazo" como una...

This document explores the predictive power of the yield curves in Latin America (Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile) taking into account the factors set by the specifications of Nelson & Siegel and Svensson. Several forecasting methodologies are contrasted: an autoregressive model, a vector...

Este documento estudia una parte relevante del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria asociado con el crédito bancario. Con tal objeto se estima un modelo VARXGARCH multivariado para establecer la relación, en frecuencia diaria, entre dos tasas de interés de corto plazo, la CDT y...

El documento tiene como objetivo describir algunos de los elementos fundamentales del mercado interbancario colombiano y del manejo de liquidez por parte del Banco de la República (BR). El documento explica las diferencias entre las principales operaciones en este mercado y describe los...

In the past decade the Colombian Economic Authorities undertook a series of measures that reduced the structural fiscal deficit, decreased the Government currency mismatch and deepened the local fixed-rate public bond market. This paper presents some evidence suggesting that these improvements...

Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple...

After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the...

Recientemente se han escuchado voces que se pronuncian en uno y otro sentidoen relación con las acciones que debería adoptar la autoridad monetaria deColombia en esta coyuntura, dados los eventos ocurridos. Este documento tienecomo propósito interpretar algunos hechos y concluir que, en...

In order to asses the credibility of their targets and policies, in-°ation targeting central banks always keep an eye on market expectations ofthe future in°ation rates and short maturity interest rates. In economies withdeveloped ¯nancial markets the prices of ¯nancial assets are a prime...