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A balanced current account in the euro area has disguised sizeable net lending imbalances at the country level, exposing the common currency area to severe pressures during the financial crisis. The key contribution of this paper is to evaluate the adjustment process through the lenses of the...
We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of...
We compare Bayesian and sample theory model specification criteria. For the Bayesian criteria we use the deviance information criterion and the cumulative density of the mean squared errors of forecast. For the sample theory criterion we use the conditional Kolmogorov test. We use Markov chain...
This report describes the macro-econometric model for the Republic of Macedonia MAKMODEL. It documents the main features of this model that was built by research teams of the Macedonian and Dutch central bank during July 1999 - June 2001 as one module of a large scale PHARE-project, funded by...
A characteristic of the empirical literature on internal population migration is widely varying results and often conflicting conclusions regarding relative importance of explanatory factors. There are a number of possible explanations for these conflicting findings, some of which have received...
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the “core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying modern econometric techniques (VAR models) we would like to “test...
The main objective of this paper is to estimate a statistical model that incorporates information at different levels: collateral, facility, industry, zone and the macro economy to predict the Recovery Rates which will enable the bank to arrive at the Loss Given Default figure that would help to...
The purpose of this study was to examine interrelationship and causal linkages between socioeconomic and environmental variables in OECD countries. To aid this study, a LISREL modelling tool was implemented. The findings of the study indicated that gross public debt increases with deterioration...
A theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proven. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.
The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proved. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.