Financial markets are typically characterized by high (low) price level and low (high) volatility during boom (bust) periods, suggesting that price and volatility tend to move together with different market conditions/states. By proposing a simple heterogeneous agent model of fundamentalists and...

We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions...

Detecting contagion during financial crises requires demarcation of crisis periods. This paper presents a method for endogenous dating of both the start and finish of crises, coupled with the statistical detection of contagion effects. We couple smooth transition functions with structural GARCH...

This paper considers a modified constant elasticity of variance (MCEV) model. This model uses the familiar constant elasticity of variance form for the volatility of the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) in a continuous market. It leads to a GOP that follows the power of a time-transformed squared...

This paper constructs and compares various total return world stock indices based on daily data. Due to diversification these indices are noticeably similar. A diversification theorem identifies any diversified portfolio as a proxy for the growth optimal portfolio. The paper constructs a...

This paper aims to discuss the optimal selection of investments for the short and long run in a continuous time financial market setting. First it documents the almost sure pathwise long run outperformance of all positive portfolios by the growth optimal portfolio. Secondly it assumes that every...

This paper describes a two-factor model for a diversified market index using the growth optimal portfolio with a stochastic and possibly correlated intrinsic time scale. The index is modeled using a time transformed squared Bessel process of dimension four with a lognormal scaling factor for the...

This paper proposes a unified framework for portfolio optimization, derivative pricing, modeling and risk measurement in financial markets with security price processes that exhibit intensity based jumps. It is based on the natural assumption that investors prefer more for less, in the sense...

This paper considers a market containing both continuous and discrete noise. Modest assumptions ensure the existence of a growth optimal portfolio. Non-negative self-financing trading strategies, when benchmarked by this portfolio, are local martingales under the real-world measure. This...

This paper derives a unified framework for portfolio optimization, derivative pricing, financial modeling and risk measurement. It is based on the natural assumption that investors prefer more or less, in the sense that the higher drift is preferred. Each such investor is shown to hold an...