The financial crisis 2008-2009 and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that stress on financial markets is important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably reflected in many financial market variables, it is...

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the...

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the...

In the present paper it will be pointed out with a panel data econometric model that government debt puts banking sector at stake since the volume of not performing loans goes up. The estimation of the model is made feasible through the Eviews software package. The present paper is based on...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary-fiscal policies interaction on price and output growth in Nigeria. The dynamic correlations of variables have been captured by the analyses of impulse response and variance decomposition. From innovation analyses, the results suggest that the...

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

This paper identifies shocks to the Federal ReserveÕs inflation target as VAR innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses...

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1979 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

We use a dynamic factor model to consider if real wage growth in the US, UK and Germany at different percentiles of the distribution can be explained by factors that are common across countries or specific to each country. Our results suggest that common factors explain a large proportion of the...