This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, and its associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision on potential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of either difference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...

This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive [STAR] time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting. Several useful extensions of the basic STAR model,...

A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...

Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast...

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions. Under weak-form (forecast) efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The...

We propose various specification tests for Hawkes models based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Hawkes models can be used to model the occurrence of extreme events in financial markets. Our specific testing focus is on extending a univariate model to a multivariate model, that is, we...

For many economic time-series variables that are observed regularly and frequently, for example weekly, the underlying activity is not distributed uniformly across the year. For the aim of predicting annual data, one may consider temporal aggregation into larger subannual units based on an...

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...

This paper surveys recent developments related to the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) time series model and several of its variants. We put emphasis on new methods for testing for STAR nonlinearity, model evaluation, and forecasting. Several useful extensions of the basic STAR model,...

For many economic time-series variables that are observed regularly and frequently, for example weekly, the underlying activity is not distributed uniformly across the year. For the aim of predicting annual data, one may consider temporal aggregation into larger subannual units based on an...