This paper studies under what circumstances creditworthy sovereign borrowers may be denied liquidity by rational creditors. It is shown that, when the creditor side of the market consists of many small investors, multiple rational expectations equilibria may exist. In one equilibrium, creditors'...

This paper develops a model that captures important features of debt crises of the Brazilian type. Its applicability to Brazil lies in the facts that (1) macroeconomic fundamentals were relatively sound in the wake of the crisis (e.g., a nonnegligible primary surplus, a relatively low debt-GDP...

After a prolonged and almost total reliance on debt restructurings and concerted money facilities, several Latin American countries have mobilized voluntary financing from international capital markets. Although the phenomenon is still limited in terms of volume and number of borrowers, it has...

This paper reviews recent theoretical and empirical work on controls over international capital movements. Theoretical contributions reviewed focus on "second-best" arguments for capital market restrictions, as well as arguments based on multiple equilibria. The empirical literature suggests...

This paper develops a model that captures important features of debt crises of the Brazilian type. Its applicability to Brazil lies in the facts that (1) macroeconomic fundamentals were relatively sound in the wake of the crisis (e.g., a nonnegligible primary surplus, a relatively low debt-GDP...

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly...

Recent research has highlighted the role that the government budget constraint plays in determining the consumer price level. According to the fiscal approach to price determination, prices adjust so that the discounted value of future real government primary surpluses equals the current real...

The link is explored between interest rates on domestic financial assets in Mexico and expectations of exchange rate changes and perceptions about default risks contained in Mexico's external debt. Interest rate differentials between peso- and U.S. dollar-denominated assets are shown to have...

This paper analyzes the initial economic conditions before IMF financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 104 IMF arrangements in 74 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important differences between the characteristics of countries about to undergo a program and...

We develop a formula for the market value of debt when the borrower's repayment capacity varies stochastically and shortfalls are rolled over. The value of a marginal dollar of nominal claim is an S-shaped function of the ratio of the repayment capacity to the amount of nominal debt. Shifts of...