This paper investigates the relative performance of local and foreign financial analysts on Latin American emerging markets.

We used neural-network based modelling to generalize the linear econometric return models and compare their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of different performance measures under three density specifications.(...)

This paper argues for a new conceptualisation of strategic foresight.Drawing on the philosophical concepts of 'anticipating critique' by Paul Feyerabend and 'occasional reason' by Helmut Spinner this paper tries to show how an new openness can be accomplished.

This study analyzes the accuracy of forecasted target prices within analysts’ reports. We compute a measurefor target price forecast accuracy that evaluates the ability of analysts to exactly forecast the ex-ante (unknown)12-month stock price. Furthermore, we determine factors that explain...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

Wirtschaftsprognosen sollen die Unsicherheit bezüglich der zukünftigen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung mindern und Planungsprozesse von Regierungen und Unternehmen unterstützen. Empirische Studien bescheinigen ihnen jedoch in aller Regel ein unbefriedigendes Qualitätsniveau. Auf der Suche nach...