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We examine out of sample predictive power of real time monetary models with nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the Pound Sterling/US Dollar exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant. By studying recursive out of sample forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537456
-term relationship. We finally conclude by comparing the forecasting ability of these two approaches with classical models such as Random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537606
key issue is this: In the literature on developing forecasting models, new models are put together based on the results … variety of exercises designed to answer this question. In particular, we find that real-time data matters for some forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537777
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In recent years the computers have shown to be a powerful tool in financial forecasting. Many machine learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342917
This paper examines different multivariate models to evaluate what are the main determinants when doing VaR forecasts for a portfolio of assets. To achieve this goal, we unify past multivariate models by using a general copula framework and we propose many new extensions. We differentiate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005342981
This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial … production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate … linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345252
This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, consumption, investment, nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345303
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