"Asymmetric Dependence (hereafter, AD) is usually thought of as a cross-sectional phenomenon. Andrew Patton describes AD as "stock returns appear to be more highly correlated during market downturns than during market upturns." (Patton, 2004) Thus at a point in time when the market return is...

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- About the Editors -- Introduction -- Chapter 1: Disappointment Aversion, Asset Pricing and Measuring Asymmetric Dependence -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 From Skiadas Preferences to Asset Prices -- 1.3 Consistently Measuring Asymmetric Dependence --...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups...

The aim of this contribution is to revisit, clarify and complete the picture of uncertainty estimates in the chain-ladder (CL) claims reserving method. Therefore, we consider the conditional mean square error of prediction (MSEP) of the total prediction uncertainty (using Mack's formula) and the...

A firm's current leverage ratio is one of the core characteristics of credit quality used in statistical default prediction models. Based on the capital structure literature, which shows that leverage is mean-reverting to a target leverage, we forecast future leverage ratios and include them in...

This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of performance indicators, namely distance-to- default, taking unobserved common factors into account. We show that common factors are important in the performance of banks and...

Forecasting based pricing of Weather Derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data. Forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR)...

Electricity load forecasts are an integral part of many decision-making processes in the electricity market. However, most literature on electricity load forecasting concentrates on deterministic forecasts, neglecting possibly important information about uncertainty. A more complete picture of...

As a solution to the longevity risks in annuity business we consider securitizations which transfer the risks to the financial markets. We apply the classical Lee-Carter model to generate the future stochastic survival distribution. We show a method to design the survivor bonds using the...