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Ein Vergleich des binären Logit-Modells mit künstlichen neuronalen Netzen zur Insolvenzprognose anhand relativer Bilanzkennzahlen
Franken, Ronald - 2007
Die Prognose der Insolvenzgefährdung von Unternehmen anhand statistischer Methodik war und ist eine bedeutende Aufgabe … die sog. externe Bilanzanalyse anhand verschiedener relativer Kennzahlen(-systeme) dar, welche aus den veröffentlichten … Jahresabschlüssen von Kapitalgesellschaften abgeleitet werden können. In der aktuellen Praxis der empirischen Insolvenz- und …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263695
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Estimation of default probabilities with Support Vector Machines
Chen, Shiyi; Härdle, Wolfgang Karl; Moro, Rouslan A. - 2006
Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274122
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Kombinierte Liquiditäts- und Solvenzkennzahlen und ein darauf basierendes Insolvenzprognosemodell für deutsche GmbHs
Perederiy, Volodymyr - 2007
Eine große Herausforderung der multivariablen Analyse mit bilanziellen Kennzahlen besteht in der Identifikation derjenigen Kennzahlen, die zur besten Modellperformance führen und dabei möglichst leicht interpretierbar und intuitiv bleiben. Die Menge der in Frage kommenden Kennzahlen ist in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263704
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Global macro-financial shocks and expected default frequencies in the euro area
Castrén, Olli; Dées, Stéphane; Zaher, Fadi - 2008
Modelling the link between the global macro-financial factors and firms’ default probabilities constitutes an elementary part of financial sector stress-testing frameworks. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive(GVAR) model and constructing a linking satellite equation for the firm-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604921
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Corporate Distress and Restructuring with Macroeconomic Fluctuations: The Cases of GM and Ford
Oxelheim, Lars; Wihlborg, Clas - 2009
Traditional methods for evaluating corporate credit risk rarely consider the impact of the macro economy on corporate value and performance. We argue that lenders and management can obtain valuable information about the need for and approach to restructuring by decomposing default predictions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320364
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The prediction of corporate bankruptcy and Czech economy's financial stability through logit analysis
Jakubík, Petr; Teplý, Petr - 2008
This article presents a financial scoring model estimated on Czech corporate accounting data. Seven financial indicators capable of explaining business failure at a 1-year prediction horizon are identified. Using the model estimated in this way, an aggregate indicator of the creditworthiness of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322234
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Household balance sheets and economic crisis
Jakubík, Petr - 2011
This paper studies the economic impact of the current global economic downturn on the household sector. Household budgets can be negatively affected by declines in nominal wages and increases in unemployment. We empirically test this effect for the small open emerging economy. As a result of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322170
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The Failure of Northern Rock: A multi-dimensional Case Study
Congdon, Tim; Goodhart, Charles A.E.; Eisenbeis, Robert A. - 2009
In August 2007 the United Kingdom experienced its first bank run in over 140 years. Although Northern Rock was not a particularly large bank (it was at the time ranked 7th in terms of assets) it was nevertheless a significant retail bank and a substantial mortgage lender. In fact, ten years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011689937
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Zombiefirmen: Ein Schatten über der Wirtschaft
Schaltegger, Christoph A.; Zell, Laura - In: Aussenwirtschaft 73 (2023) 1, pp. 35-52
Zombieunternehmen werden mittlerweile sowohl in den Medien als auch in der Wissenschaft breit diskutiert. Da sich die meisten Studien vorrangig international mit dem Phänomen auseinandersetzen, fehlt es an detaillierten Analysen für die Schweiz. Das vorliegende Kurzpapier beleuchtet daher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014518644
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Prognoseeignung des Prognoseberichts? Eine empirisch gestützte Diskussion vor dem Hintergrund aktueller Änderungen im DRS 15 und der geplanten Umsetzung des ED Management Commentar...
Henselmann, Klaus; Klein, Martin; Raschdorf, Florian - 2010
In today's uncertain financial climate it is particularly important for entities to explain their financial performance relative to their expectations. Therefore, the paper analyzes the quality and quantity of management reporting in Germany's publicly traded MDAX and SDAX companies using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010300005