This paper uses statistical model selection criteria and Avramovs (2002) Bayesian model averaging approach to analyze the sample evidence on stock market predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. Based on Swiss stock market data, our posterior analysis finds that neither the...

This paper deals with the intra-day behavior of asset prices shortly before and after large price changes.

This paper analyzes optimal portfolio choice and consumption with stochastic volatility in incomplete markets.

The H−family of distributions or H−distributions, introduced byTukey (1960, 1977), are generated by a single transformation of the standard normal distribution and allow for leptokurtosis represented by the parameter h. Alternatively, Haynes, MacGillivray and Mengersen (1997) generated...

The imprecise Beta model (IBM) of Bernard (1996) and Walley (1996) is the most popular model for learning about a binomial random variable under prior ignorance. Piatti et al. (2005) show that there is a fundamental issue with the interpretation of results produced by the IBM in applications....

Closed-form, trivially evaluated approximations for the density and cumulative distribution function of the doubly noncentral t distribution are developed based on saddlepoint methods. They exhibit remarkable accuracy throughout the entire support of the distribution and are vastly superior to...

The recently proposed class of MixN-GARCH models, which couple a mixed normal distributional structure with linked GARCH-type dynamics, has been shown to offer a plausible decomposition of the contributions to volatility, as well as admirable out-of-sample forecasting performance, for financial...

We consider consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency at any order of a given portfolio with respect to all possible portfolios constructed from a set of assets. We justify block bootstrap approaches to achieve valid inference in a time series setting. The test statistics are computed...

We analyze financial constraints for R&D, where we account for heterogeneityamong investments which has been neglected in previous literature. According toeconomic theory, investments should be distinguished by their degree ofuncertainty, e.g. routine R&D versus cutting-edge R&D. Financial...

A generalized correlated random walk is a process X_k of partial sums of random variables Y_j such that (X,Y) forms a Markov chain. For a sequence X^n of such processes where each Y^n_j takes only two values, we prove weak convergence to a diffusion process whose generator is explicitly...