Ané, Thierry; Ureche-Langau, Loredana; Gambet, Jean-Benoît - Université Paris-Dauphine (Paris IX) - 2008
a financial series. It uses an AR(1)–GARCH(1,1) model to calculate interval forecasts for one-step ahead returns that … GARCH model, however, is only used as a filter and the identification algorithm remains robust to model misspecifications …-of-sample forecasting performance of our outlier-corrected model is then compared to the classical forecasts of a GARCH model in which no …