Showing 1 - 10 of 1,878
In this paper we provide a theoretical analysis of effects of applying different forecast diversification methods on the structure of the forecast error covariance matrices and decomposed forecast error components based on the bias- variance- Bayes error decomposition of James and Hastie. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429663
This paper provides a discussion of the effects of different multi-level learning approaches on the resulting out of sample forecast errors in the case of difficult real-world forecasting problems with large noise terms in the training data, frequently occurring structural breaks and quickly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429664
In this paper we provide experimental results and extensions to our previous theoretical findings concerning the combination of forecasts that have been diversified by three different methods: with parameters learned at different data aggregation levels, by thick modeling and by the use of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429665
The parameter in negative correlation learning (NC) controls the degree of co-operation between individual networks. This paper looks at the way the choice of in the NC algorithm affects the complexity of the function NC can fit, and shows that it acts as a complexity control allowing smooth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429666
This paper provides a description and experimental comparison of different forecast combination techniques for the application of Revenue Management forecasting for Airlines. In order to benefit from the advantages of forecasts predicting seasonal demand using different forecast models on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429667
The combination of forecasts is a well established procedure for improving forecast performance and decreasing the risk of selecting an inferior model out of an existing pool of models. Work in this area mainly focuses on combining several functionally different models, but some publications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429719
In this paper a classification framework for incomplete data, based on electrostatic field model is proposed. An original approach to exploiting incomplete training data with missing features, involving extensive use of electrostatic charge analogy, has been used. The framework supports a hybrid...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429779
Forecasting is at the heart of every revenue management system, providing necessary input to capacity control, pricing and overbooking functionalities. For airlines, the key to efficient capacity control is determining the time of when to restrict bookings in a lower-fare class to leave space...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429780
Estimation of the generalization ability of a predictive model is an important issue, as it indicates expected performance on previously unseen data and is also used for model selection. Currently used generalization error estimation procedures like cross–validation (CV) or bootstrap are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429791
In research of time series forecasting, a lot of uncertainty is still related to the task of selecting an appropriate forecasting method for a problem. It is not only the individual algorithms that are available in great quantities; combination approaches have been equally popular in the last...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429807