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In this paper we provide a theoretical analysis of effects of applying different forecast diversification methods on the structure of the forecast error covariance matrices and decomposed forecast error components based on the bias- variance- Bayes error decomposition of James and Hastie. We...
This paper provides a discussion of the effects of different multi-level learning approaches on the resulting out of sample forecast errors in the case of difficult real-world forecasting problems with large noise terms in the training data, frequently occurring structural breaks and quickly...
In this paper we provide experimental results and extensions to our previous theoretical findings concerning the combination of forecasts that have been diversified by three different methods: with parameters learned at different data aggregation levels, by thick modeling and by the use of...
The parameter in negative correlation learning (NC) controls the degree of co-operation between individual networks. This paper looks at the way the choice of in the NC algorithm affects the complexity of the function NC can fit, and shows that it acts as a complexity control allowing smooth...
This paper provides a description and experimental comparison of different forecast combination techniques for the application of Revenue Management forecasting for Airlines. In order to benefit from the advantages of forecasts predicting seasonal demand using different forecast models on...
The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) is offered as one way forward in software systems modelling to connect software design with the business domain. The general focus of the MDA is the development of software systems by performing transformations between software design models, and the automatic...
Most practitioners recognise the important part accurate estimates of development effort play in the successful management of major software projects. However, it is widely recognised that current estimation techniques are often very inaccurate, while studies (Heemstra 1992; Lederer and Prasad 1993)...
Process modelling is gaining increasing acceptance by software engineers as a useful discipline to facilitate both process understanding and improvement activities. This position paper builds upon previous work reported at the 1997 ICSE workshop on process models and empirical studies of...
Over the years, there has been much interest in modelling processes. Processes include those associated with the development of software and those business processes that make use of software systems. Recent research in Systems Engineering for Business Process Change highlights the importance of...
This paper describes a method for process modelling which is designed to provide guidance to the business process modeller. The method has evolved from our experience of attempting to apply software process modelling approaches to business processes. A major influence on the method has been our...