Showing 1 - 10 of 176
for the skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long run …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276400
We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology. A solution … shocks are orthogonal to the information set in the VAR model and can be interpreted as non-fundamental shocks. We attribute …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284471
Some methods for the evaluation of parameter constancy in cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models are discussed …. Two different ways of re-estimating the VAR-model are proposed; one in which all parameters are estimated recursively … the cointegrated VAR-model. All results are illustrated using a model for the term structure of interest rates on US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005749668
We show in this paper that volatility measures can be misleading indicators of risk if returns do not follow a Gaussian distribution. A more reliable measure of risk is the probability distribution of the return on an asset. Estimators for these measures are usually challenging and need of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005753752
between the measured and predicted number of 9-year-olds does exist, the VAR, VECM, and linear regression are used in … estimation of the goodness of fit and root mean-square errors, RMSE. The highest R2=0.95 and the best RMSE is obtained in the VAR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005790144
We suggest an alternative use of disaggregate information to forecast the aggregate variable of interest, that is to include disaggregate information or disaggregate variables in the aggregate model as opposed to first forecasting the disaggregate variables separately and then aggregating those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604635
help predicting euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables provide additional predictive power. We use a VAR … between 1999 and 2002. Results from the historical decomposition of a VAR model indeed suggest that in that period shocks were …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605154
empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices by means of a standard VAR system, commonly used in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605278
-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a ‘ProbVAR’. At any …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605301
between the measured and predicted number of 9-year-olds does exist, the VAR, VECM, and linear regression are used in … the VAR representation. The VECM provides consistent, statistically reliable, and significant estimates of the slope in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999731